The last three weeks have been very dry in our regions. The main reason has been the stationary intense high pressure systems.
Over the past week an East Coast low has been sitting in the North Tasman Sea, delivering heavy rainfalls along the NSW Coast from Nowra up to Byron Bay and this has acted as a blocking situation.
Once this East Low deepens and then moves away which appears likely by next week , this blocking pattern breaks down allowing rain bearing fronts to affect us eventually.
It now appears that the next significant rain will not arrive before the second week of July. It has been the driest first half of June in Coonabarabran since 2000.
Many other places have had their driest first half of June since 1975 or 1958. Adelaide has had it's driest start to any winter since 1958 and at the same time there was heavy rain in Sydney and on the far north coast like what has happened this month.
Both Yamba and Lismore have had over 300 mms this month, one of the wettest Junes on record. Perth is heading towards it's warmest ever June on record, breaking the previous record set in June 1949.
That year was bleak and very cold from May to July in our regions with widespread snowfalls and the warmer conditions from Perth were blocked from reaching our regions until August 1949.
I do not expect such harsh conditions in the coming weeks in our regions, but I expect both August and September to be warmer and drier than those two months last year. I maybe going to Norfolk Island in September.
Last year in Norfolk Island was the warmest in 77 years of records and this year shapes up being also the warmest on record. Previous warmest years were in 1973, 1988 and 1998.
Sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea which have been well above normal since December eased closer to normal 10 days ago have now risen to well above normal since 13th June again.