Further warm to hot and humid with isolated thunderstorm activity

By Peter Nelson on November 27, 2017

The past 10 days has seen hot and humid days in our regions with variable thunderstorm rains. During this period a small complex low pressure has remained stagnant mainly over the Eyre Peninsular at first then oscillated into Western Victoria at the weekend and by late Sunday stalled over NE Victoria.

A new low pressure is advancing from inland parts of the Nation and this will enhance further hot humid conditions with scattered thunderstorms. The small low pressure brought isolated heavy rainfalls to the Eyre Peninsula to last Thursday morning , 23rd November.

Port Lincoln recorded 43.2 mms and this was the highest daily fall for November since 1947. Rainfall records at Port Lincoln go back to 1871. Melbourne has had a record 8 successive days of 28 degrees or more for November.

However, the hottest 8 day spell overall in November, was in 2009 when the mean maximum temperature at 32.4 was more than one degree higher than the recent hot spell. Most Novembers in Melbourne have the highest temperature reaching 35 degrees.

So far this November the highest temperature has not exceeded 33 degrees in Melbourne. The longest spell of 28 degrees or more in Melbourne was 17 days from 16th January to 1st February 1951. There were nine successive days in January 1974. Humidity has been notably high the last 10 days with convective thunderstorm clouds visible during most afternoons.

Rainfall totals have been very patchy in our regions the past week. Few places have had no rain particularly north from Forbes. My eldest son , Anthony reported a thunderstorm with a tornadic squall near his Berwick home last Saturday afternoon and 31 mms rainfall. He was not pleased that I have forecast a warmer and more humid summer with more thunderstorms than normally.

Darwin has had heavy rain this month and last month as well. The same rainfall pattern occurred during those two months last year and there were back to back occurrences in 2010 and 2011 in Darwin which was the only other case in the last 147 years this has happened.

Perth is currently having it's hottest November since 2010. So it does indicate that wetter weather is on its way and I will go for excessive rains in 2018 in our regions and even in 2019 as well.

By Peter Nelson on November 27, 2017

Dummy text